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10 razones por las que Siria vive un colapso político y social

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10 reasons why Syria live a social and political collapse

 

 

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La guerra civil en Siria se ha convertido en la principal fuente de noticias para los medios de comunicación de todo el mundo. La UE está abrumada ante el flujo de refugiados sirios que huyen de la barbarie del Estado Islámico, mientras que los intereses cruzados de Rusia y EE.UU. en el territorio del devastado país aumentan entre los dos hemisferios el grado de confrontación, el más tenso desde la época de la Guerra Fría

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La región de Oriente Medio es uno de las más inestables del planeta en la historia reciente. Sin embargo, Siria causa un impacto sin precedentes en la política internacional y en el destino de regiones enteras como el golfo Pérsico o la Unión Europea. La revista rusa ‘Slon’ ha intentado analizar los 10 puntos clave que explicarían por qué precisamente ese país se ha convertido en escenario de este grave colapso político y social.  

1. Cruce de civilizaciones

El Estado sirio está situado en un ‘cruce de civilizaciones’. En su territorio se han enfrentado tradicionalmente los intereses de Occidente y Oriente (la confrontación de Alejandro Magno y los aqueménides, Roma y Partia, Bizancio y los sasánidas…); del Norte y del Sur (confrontación del antiguo Egipto y los hititas, Ilkanato y los mamelucos) y, desde el inicio del segundo milenio, el islam y el cristianismo (las Cruzadas). Además, Siria, igual que Ucrania, es el corredor para el trasporte de hidrocarburos extraídos en Asia más importante para el mercado europeo. Por esa razón, múltiples grupos económicos y políticos intentan controlar el territorio sirio

 

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2. ‘Babilonia’

La ubicación geográfica de Siria en la intersección de las principales rutas comerciales llevó a la penetración de diferentes culturas y religiones, lo que, a su vez, obstaculizó la formación de una identidad nacional. En otras palabras, Siria es demasiado diversa para estar unida. Durante el Mandato francés creado tras la Primera Guerra Mundial a través de la partición del Imperio turco, Siria fue dividida en cuatro partes: Alepo, Damasco, Jabal al Druze y el Estado alauita. A pesar de que el islam es la religión dominante en el país, la numerosa comunidad cristiana y representantes de otras confesiones convivían pacíficamente antes de que se iniciara la caída brusca del PIB nacional en los 2000. La igualdad de derechos entre las confesiones sirias era motivo de indignación para la mayoría suní, una circunstancia de la que se aprovechó el Estado Islámico, que ha logrado instaurar su ‘cuasi-país’ en el territorio sirio.  

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4. Auge demográfico

Siria ha experimentado varias olas de aumento demográfico durante las últimas décadas. La población del país, 4 millones de personas en el año 1950, creció en 18 millones hasta 2010. El país tenía alrededor de 2,5 millones de habitantes de entre 15 y 24 años. En 2000 Damasco ya contaba con 3,8 millones jóvenes de esta edad y en 2010 las cifras señalaban un índice de 4,6 millones. Esto llevó a la necesidad de crear 400.000 puestos de trabajo anualmente, pero la economía siria no cumplió con esta tarea. Como resultado, cientos de miles de jóvenes, muchos de los cuales posteriormente se unieron a los diversos grupos armados, se quedaron sin trabajo

 

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. 5. Bashar al Assad: un presidente alauita entre suníes 

Bashar al Assad se convirtió en presidente de Siria en el año 2000 y continuó el cometido de su padre, Hafez al Assad, quien dirigió el país desde 1970. Por lo tanto, durante los últimos 45 años, el país, con la mayoría de la población representada por musulmanes suníes, es controlada por una familia de alauitas, seguidores de unas enseñanzas derivadas del chiismo en el siglo IX, aunque desde entonces evolucionó en una religión casi autónoma que incorpora características del cristianismo y de algunos cultos preislámicos.

6. El factor ruso

Moscú tradicionalmente ha mantenido relaciones bilaterales con Damasco. En 2005 Rusia ‘perdonó’ a Siria unos 15.000 millones de dólares que debía a la Unión Soviética. Rusia mantiene el comercio de armas con Siria. Todo esto esforzó la posición negativa de Occidente ante el régimen de Al Assad. Al mismo tiempo, el apoyo de Rusia no ha permitido a los enemigos del líder sirio apoyar abiertamente a los rebeldes que luchan contra Damasco.

«Rusia no da ningún paso sin el consentimiento de las autoridades de Damasco, a diferencia de los países que están bombardeando a Siria», subrayó esta semana la representante oficial del Ministerio ruso de Relaciones Exteriores, María Zajárova en referencia a la coalición internacional liderada por EE.UU. y Arabia Saudita.

 

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7. Un vecino inestable

La guerra en Irak, iniciada por la intervención de la coalición internacional encabezada por EE.UU., sigue cobrándose la vida de cientos miles de personas. Desde entonces, solo ha habido un periodo de algo parecido a la paz entre 2008 y 2011. Sin embargo, los enfrentamientos entre Occidente y partidarios de Saddam Hussein se convirtió en una guerra entre suníes y chiíes. En la vanguardia de las fuerzas suníes había combatientes del Estado Islámico, mientras que los chiíes fueron respaldados por las unidades militares compuestas de rebeldes kurdos. La invasión estadounidense de Irak dio lugar a un flujo de chiíes a Siria, lo que causó en el país un desequilibrio confesional del que también se aprovechan los yihadistas

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8. La inquietud de los kurdos

Los kurdos son la mayor minoría étnica de Siria. Cuando empezó la guerra civil en Siria vivían cerca de 2,5 millones de kurdos. La comunidad kurda, que sigue estando mucho más consolidada que otros participantes de la guerra, tomó una posición aislada desde el primer día del conflicto. Por el momento, los kurdos controlan varias ciudades importantes en el noreste de Siria fronterizas con los territorios iraquíes, también ocupados por representantes de su etnia. Al ser una parte absolutamente independiente en el conflicto, los kurdos se oponen tanto al presidente Al Assad como al Estado Islámico, y se acercan gradualmente a la creación de su propio Estado en la frontera entre Siria e Irak.

9. Turquía y sus ambiciones otomanas

A pesar de que la guerra en Siria provocó un flujo de refugiados a Turquía y aumentó el peligro del separatismo kurdo, Ankara está ciertamente interesada ​en derrocar a Bashar al Assad. El presidente sirio ha seguido una política independiente sin tener en cuenta a su vecino del norte. A su vez Turquía, un país donde muchos siguen considerando Siria como una antigua provincia del Imperio otomano, quisiera extender su influencia en Oriente Medio. Antes de la desestabilización de la situación en Siria los dos países mantenían relaciones bastante amistosas, pero el inicio de la Primavera Árabe y la guerra civil dio a Turquía la esperanza de hacer disminuir la influencia de Damasco en la región. Ankara aspira a hacerse con el liderazgo regional sin participar en conflictos militares a gran escala en Siria.

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1. Un aliado fiel

Damasco es el aliado más fiable de los ayatolás en Oriente Medio. El Gobierno de Al Assad permite a Irán diluir la hegemonía sunita establecida de Estambul a Yemen y del Norte de África hasta el golfo Pérsico. Por esa razón la República Islámica de Irán no dejará de apoyar al presidente sirio en un futuro a la vista pese a la carga que esta amistad supone para sus arcas

 

 

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The Middle East region is one of the most unstable in the world in recent history. However, Syria causes an impact without precedent in international politics and in the destiny of entire like the Persian Gulf or the European Union regions. The Russian magazine ‘Slon’ attempted to analyze the 10 key points that would explain why precisely this country has become this serious political and social collapse scenario.

 

1. crossroads of civilizations

 

The Syrian State is located in a ‘crossroads of civilizations’. In its territory the interests of East and West have traditionally faced (the confrontation of Alexander the great and the aquemenides, Rome and Parthia, Byzantium and the Sassanids…); North and South (confrontation of the ancient Egypt and the Hittites, Ilkhanate and the Mamluks), and, since the beginning of the second millennium, islam and Christianity (the Crusades). Syria, like Ukraine, is also the corridor for the transportation of hydrocarbons extracted in most important Asia for the European market. For that reason, multiple economic and political groups seek to control the Syrian territory

 

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The civil war in Syria has become the main source of news for the media around the world. The EU is overwhelmed by the flow of Syrian refugees fleeing the savagery of the Islamic State, while the crossed interests of Russia and the USA in the territory of the devastated country increase between the two hemispheres the degree of confrontation, the more tense since the time of the Guerra fria10 reasons why Syria live a social and political collapse

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3. the drought and the fate of the Akkadian Empire

 

Syria experienced a severe drought between 2006 and 2010. The average annual temperature in the country increased by 1.2 degrees centigrade since 1990 and the season d rains decreased by 10%. All this forced 1.5 million people in rural areas to leave their homes and move to overcrowded cities. More than 800,000 farms were abandoned and cereal prices have increased by 27%. The fall of the quality of life gave rise to social unrest which, in turn, became one of the causes of the civil war. Historians even compared to the current situation in the country the situation in the old Akkadian Empire, located in the territory of Syria and Mesopotamia. The drought and the fighting were also factors that caused the fall of the central Government of the former mperio, which reached its maximum splendor between the 24TH and 22ND centuries BC

 

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The Middle East region is one of the most unstable in the world in recent history. However, Syria causes an impact without precedent in international politics and in the destiny of entire like the Persian Gulf or the European Union regions. The Russian magazine ‘Slon’ attempted to analyze the 10 key points that would explain why precisely this country has become this serious political and social collapse scenario.

 

1. crossroads of civilizations

 

The Syrian State is located in a ‘crossroads of civilizations’. In its territory the interests of East and West have traditionally faced (the confrontation of Alexander the great and the aquemenides, Rome and Parthia, Byzantium and the Sassanids…); North and South (confrontation of the ancient Egypt and the Hittites, Ilkhanate and the Mamluks), and, since the beginning of the second millennium, islam and Christianity (the Crusades). Syria, like Ukraine, is also the corridor for the transportation of hydrocarbons extracted in most important Asia for the European market. For that reason, multiple economic and political groups seek to control the Syrian territory

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2 ‘Babilonia’

 

The geographical location of Syria at the intersection of major trade routes led to the penetration of different cultures and religions, which, in turn, hampered the formation of a national identity. In other words, Syria is too diverse to be permanently attached. During the French mandate created after the first world war through the part of the Turkish Empire, Syria was divided into four parts: Aleppo, Damascus, Jabal Druze and alawite State. While islam is the dominant religion in the country, the large Christian community and representatives of other confessions coexisted peacefully until started the sudden fall of the GDP in 2000. The equality of rights between the Syrian confessions was cause for indignation for the Sunni majority, a circumstance that they took advantage of the Islamic State, which has managed to establish its ‘quasi-country’ in Syrian territory.

 

 

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3. the drought and the fate of the Akkadian Empire

 

Syria experienced a severe drought between 2006 and 2010. The average annual temperature in the country increased by 1.2 degrees centigrade since 1990 and the season d rains decreased by 10%. All this forced 1.5 million people in rural areas to leave their homes and move to overcrowded cities. More than 800,000 farms were abandoned and cereal prices have increased by 27%. The fall of the quality of life gave rise to social unrest which, in turn, became one of the causes of the civil war. Historians even compared to the current situation in the country the situation in the old Akkadian Empire, located in the territory of Syria and Mesopotamia. The drought and the fighting were also factors that caused the fall of the central Government of the former mperio, which reached its maximum splendor between the 24TH and 22ND centuries BC

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4. population boom

 

Syria has experienced several waves of population growth in recent decades. The population of the country, 4 million people in 1950, grew up in 18 million until 2010. The country had around 2.5 million people aged between 15 and 24. In 2000 Damascus already had 3.8 million young of this age and in 2010 the figures pointed to a rate of 4.6 million. This led to the necessity of creating 400,000 jobs annually, but the Syrian economy not fulfilled this task. As a result, hundreds of thousands of young people, many of whom later joined the various armed groups, were left without work

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5. Bashar Al-Assad: an alawite President between Sunni

 

Bashar Al-Assad became President of Syria in 2000 and continued the role of his father, Hafez Al-Assad, who headed the country since 1970. Therefore, during the past 45 years, the country, with the majority of the population represented by Sunni Muslims, is controlled by a family of Alawites, followers of a few teachings derived from the Shi’a in the 9th century, although since then evolved into a religion almost autonomous that incorporates features of Christianity and some pre-Islamic cults.

 

6. the Russian factor

 

Moscow has traditionally maintained bilateral relations with Damascus. In 2005 Russia ‘forgave’ Syria about 15,000 million of dollars that was the Soviet Union. Russia maintains the trade of weapons to Syria. All this effort the negative position of the West before the regime of Al-Assad. At the same time, the support of Russia has not the enemies of the Syrian leader openly support the rebels fighting against Damascus.

 

«Russia does not give any step without the consent of the authorities in Damascus, in contrast to countries which are bombing to Syria,» stressed the official representative of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, María Zajárova in reference to the international coalition led by the United States and Saudi Arabia this week.

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7. an unstable neighbor

 

The war in Iraq, launched by the intervention of the international coalition led by the United States, continues to claim the lives of hundreds thousands of people. Since then, has seen only a period of something like peace between 2008 and 2011. However, clashes between the West and supporters of Saddam Hussein became a war between Sunni and Shia. At the forefront of the Sunni forces there were fighters of the Islamic State, while Shiites were backed by military units made up of Kurdish rebels. The U.S. invasion of Iraq resulted in a flow of Shi’a to Syria, which caused the country a confessional imbalance which also jihadists will take advantage

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8. the concerns of the Kurds

 

The Kurds are the largest ethnic minority in Syria. When he started the civil war in Syria they lived about 2.5 million Kurds. The Kurdish community, which is still much stronger than other participants of the war, took a position isolated from the first day of the conflict. For the moment, the Kurds control several important cities in the northeast of Syria border with the Iraqi territories, also occupied by representatives of their ethnicity. To be completely independent in the conflict part, Kurds are opposed both to President Al-Assad as the Islamic State, and they come gradually to the creation of their own State on the border between Syria and Iraq.

 

9 Turkey and Ottoman ambitions

 

While the war in Syria caused a flow of refugees to Turkey and increased the danger of Kurdish separatism, Ankara is certainly interested in overthrow Bashar Al-Assad. The Syrian President has followed an independent policy without regard to its neighbor to the North. At the same time Turkey, a country where many still regard Syria as a former province of the Ottoman Empire, I would like to extend its influence in the Middle East. Before the destabilization of the situation in Syria, the two countries maintained rather friendly relations, but the start of the Arab spring and the civil war gave to Turkey hoping to make to decrease the influence of Damascus in the region. Ankara hopes to win with the regional leadership without participating in military conflicts on a large scale in Syria.

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…….. 10. a faithful ally

Damascus is the most reliable ally of the ayatollahs in the Middle East. The Government of Al Assad allows Iran dilute the Sunni hegemony established in Istanbul to Yemen and North Africa to the Persian Gulf. For that reason the Islamic Republic of Iran does not cease its support of the Syrian president in a future to the view in spite of the burden that this friendship means for their coffers