{"id":32484,"date":"2015-10-24T12:58:44","date_gmt":"2015-10-24T10:58:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/?p=32484"},"modified":"2015-10-24T12:58:44","modified_gmt":"2015-10-24T10:58:44","slug":"sin-salida-razones-por-las-que-espana-no-podra-superar-su-crisis-economica-no-way-out-reasons-why-spain-shall-not-exceed-its-economic-crisis","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/?p=32484","title":{"rendered":"…\u00bfSin salida?: Razones por las que Espa\u00f1a no podr\u00e1 superar su crisis econ\u00f3mica….No way out?: reasons why Spain shall not exceed its economic crisis"},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u00bfSin salida?: Razones por las que Espa\u00f1a no podr\u00e1 superar su crisis econ\u00f3mica<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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No way out?: reasons why Spain shall not exceed its economic crisis<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Pese a la existencia de algunos indicadores favorables de la econom\u00eda de Espa\u00f1a, vinculados a las pol\u00edticas de ajuste y reestructuraci\u00f3n, las condiciones generales auguran que la crisis no podr\u00e1 ser superada y generar\u00e1 m\u00e1s problemas. <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Tras sufrir los efectos de la crisis bancaria e hipotecaria, Espa\u00f1a es presentada ahora como una de las econom\u00edas que m\u00e1s crece en la Uni\u00f3n Europea, por encima de Alemania, Francia e Italia.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Sin embargo, aunque haya quienes sostienen que esta evoluci\u00f3n deriva de los recortes y de las reformas impuestas\u00a0por la eurozona, algunas voces se levantan para expresar una opini\u00f3n totalmente contraria. Simon Tilford, subdirector del Centro de Reforma Europea, asegura que \u00abno hay evidencia\u00bb de que el crecimiento sea \u00abresultado de la austeridad\u00bb, y menos a\u00fan de que sea \u00abproducto de reformas estructurales\u00bb, informa ‘The Telegraph’<\/a>. Antes al contrario, el especialista asegura que la econom\u00eda espa\u00f1ola a\u00fan es vulnerable a otra crisis global, lo que sit\u00faa al Gobierno ante varios desaf\u00edos:<\/span><\/p>\n

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Exportaciones<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Aunque las exportaciones fueron clave en el crecimiento, favorecidas en concreto por un euro barato, para volverse competitivas requirieron de un importante proceso de ajuste que incluso afect\u00f3 a los salarios. Adem\u00e1s, se registr\u00f3 una ca\u00edda de las importaciones, con la consiguiente ca\u00edda en la calidad de vida y el aumento del desempleo, recuerda Tilford. Sin embargo, las exportaciones todav\u00eda generan preocupaci\u00f3n, ya que, seg\u00fan el especialista, las reformas no estar\u00edan yendo acompa\u00f1adas del desarrollo de productos con mayor valor agregado.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Deflaci\u00f3n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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La ca\u00edda de los precios -un 0,9 por ciento en septiembre- representa un peligro para el crecimiento de la econom\u00eda de pa\u00edses con importantes deudas, ya que el proceso de pago se vuelve a\u00fan m\u00e1s complicado debido a que aumenta su valor y somete a m\u00e1s presi\u00f3n a las finanzas p\u00fablicas. Por ello, pese a todos los ajustes aplicados en los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os, la deuda total de Espa\u00f1a es mayor a la que ten\u00eda en 2008.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Una nueva recesi\u00f3n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Los \u00edndices de desempleo, productividad y deuda muestran que la econom\u00eda espa\u00f1ola a\u00fan es vulnerable ante una eventual nueva crisis externa. \u00abLos ciclos econ\u00f3micos parecen ser m\u00e1s cortos y las crisis m\u00e1s profundas\u00bb, asegura Tilford, que advirti\u00f3 que ante una nueva ca\u00edda Espa\u00f1a contar\u00eda \u00abcon menos herramientas pol\u00edticas a su disposici\u00f3n para hacer frente a un nuevo debilitamiento de la demanda interna\u00bb.<\/span><\/p>\n

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A esto hay que sumar, seg\u00fan el portal, el riesgo pol\u00edtico que podr\u00eda representar el ascenso en las pr\u00f3ximas elecciones de partidos como Ciudadanos y Podemos<\/a> en un momento en que la Comisi\u00f3n Europea exige a Madrid nuevas exigencias, que incluyen m\u00e1s recortes y el aumento de los ingresos fiscales, y que las autoridades locales est\u00e1n dispuestas a aplicar, ya que, como expres\u00f3 el gobernador\u00a0del Banco de Espa\u00f1a, Jos\u00e9 Mar\u00eda Linde, no se\u00a0deber\u00eda \u00abcorrer el riesgo de salir del camino de la consolidaci\u00f3n fiscal\u00bb. Por todo ello, concluye Tilford, \u00abEspa\u00f1a afrontar\u00e1 mucho m\u00e1s dolor\u00bb.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Despite the existence of some favourable indicators of the economy of Spain, linked to the policies of adjustment and restructuring, the General conditions predict that the crisis will not be overcome and will generate more problems.<\/span><\/p>\n

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After suffering the effects of the banking and mortgage crisis, Spain is now presented as one more growing economies in the European Union, ahead of Germany, France and Italy.<\/span><\/p>\n

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However, although there are those who argue that this evolution derives from cuts and reforms imposed by the eurozone, some voices are raised to express a completely opposite view. Simon Tilford, Deputy Director of the Centre for European reform, said that \u00abthere is no evidence\u00bb that the growth is \u00aba result of the austerity\u00bb, and even less that is \u00abproduct of structural reforms\u00bb, reports The Telegraph. On the contrary, the specialist ensures that the Spanish economy is still vulnerable to another global crisis, which places the Government faced several challenges:<\/span><\/p>\n

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Exports<\/span><\/p>\n

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Although exports were key in the growth, favoured in particular by a cheap dollar, to become competitive they required of an important process of adjustment which even affected wages. In addition, a drop in imports, was registered with the consequent fall in the quality of life and the rise in unemployment, recalls Tilford. However, exports still generated concern, since, according to the specialist, the reforms would be not going accompanied by the development of products with higher added value.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Deflation<\/span><\/p>\n

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The fall in prices – a 0.9 per cent in September \u2013 represents a threat to the growth of the economy of countries with significant debt, since the payment process becomes even more complicated since it increases its value and subjected to more pressure on public finances. That is why, despite all the settings applied in recent years, the total debt of Spain is greater that had in 2008.<\/span><\/p>\n

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A new recession<\/span><\/p>\n

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The rates of unemployment, productivity and debt show that the Spanish economy is still vulnerable to a possible new external crisis. \u00abEconomic cycles appear to be shorter and more profound crises,\u00bb says Tilford, who warned that before a fall New Spain would have \u00abless political tools at their disposal\u00bb to deal with a new weakening of domestic demand.<\/span><\/p>\n

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To this must be added, according to the website, the political risk that would represent the rise on upcoming elections of parties like citizens and we can at a time when the European Commission requires Madrid new demands, which include more cuts and increased tax revenues, and that local authorities are willing to apply, since , said the Governor of the Bank of Spain, Jos\u00e9 Mar\u00eda Linde, not is should \u00abtake the risk out of the path of fiscal consolidation\u00bb. Therefore, concludes Tilford, \u00abSpain will face much more pain\u00bb.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Tweet…………………….. \u00bfSin salida?: Razones por las que Espa\u00f1a no podr\u00e1 superar su crisis econ\u00f3mica ………. ……….. No way out?: reasons why Spain shall not exceed its economic crisis …….. …………. … RT ….. ….   … Pese a la existencia de algunos indicadores favorables de la econom\u00eda de Espa\u00f1a, vinculados a las pol\u00edticas de ajuste […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,5,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32484","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-divulgacion","category-etnopaisaje","category-mis-dibujos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32484","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=32484"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32484\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":32487,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/32484\/revisions\/32487"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=32484"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=32484"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=32484"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}