{"id":30573,"date":"2015-02-26T13:32:55","date_gmt":"2015-02-26T11:32:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/?p=30573"},"modified":"2015-02-26T13:32:55","modified_gmt":"2015-02-26T11:32:55","slug":"es-india-china-y-rusia-una-coalicion-inevitable-is-a-china-india-russia-coalition-inevitable","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/?p=30573","title":{"rendered":"Es -India-China y Rusia una Coalici\u00f3n Inevitable?.Is a China-India-Russia Coalition Inevitable?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Es -India-China y \u00a0Rusia \u00a0una Coalici\u00f3n Inevitable?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Is a China-India-Russia Coalition Inevitable?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Etnopaisje.com + dibujos<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

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Aunque es poco probable en un futuro pr\u00f3ximo, los intereses tres poderes comparten que los unen y plantean un desaf\u00edo a los EE.UU<\/span><\/p>\n

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Un nuevo orden mundial est\u00e1 emergiendo, aunque gran parte de su forma es a\u00fan incierto.<\/strong> Por lo menos, muchos estar\u00edan de acuerdo en que, si bien los EE.UU. seguir\u00e1 siendo un gran poder durante muchas d\u00e9cadas por venir, su cuota de poder global disminuir\u00e1 en relaci\u00f3n con otras potencias emergentes. Estas otras potencias, como China y la India, se pondr\u00e1 al d\u00eda y jugar un papel m\u00e1s activo e importante en los asuntos mundiales. Mientras que muchos analistas se han centrado su atenci\u00f3n en una posible rivalidad entre China y los EE.UU., pocos han prestado suficiente atenci\u00f3n a la din\u00e1mica emergente entre China, India y Rusia y la posibilidad de una coalici\u00f3n entre ellos nace de su deseo de alterar el status quo .<\/span><\/p>\n

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En la superficie, parece que China, India y Rusia est\u00e1n mal adaptados a una sociedad. A pesar de ser miembros del club \u00abBRICS\u00bb, hay muchas diferencias sustantivas entre los tres pa\u00edses, en<\/strong> particular entre China y la India, que afectar\u00e1n a la forma en que se relacionan en las d\u00e9cadas por venir.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Las tensiones entre China y la India son evidentes. Mientras que la India es una democracia, China sigue siendo un r\u00e9gimen autoritario<\/strong>. Por supuesto, la importancia del tipo de r\u00e9gimen en las relaciones interestatales es discutible. Estados con diferentes tipos de reg\u00edmenes no son necesariamente condenadas a relaciones conflictivas; no hay nada inherente en el tipo de r\u00e9gimen que inhibe la cooperaci\u00f3n. A\u00fan as\u00ed, muchos estar\u00edan de acuerdo en que la India, en alg\u00fan grado, ve a China no democr\u00e1tica como una amenaza; si es o no una percepci\u00f3n tal amenaza se basa en la realidad es una cuesti\u00f3n diferente. La percepci\u00f3n impactos solos sus relaciones.<\/span><\/p>\n

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El mayor problema de las relaciones entre China y la India sigue siendo la disputa territorial entre ambos<\/strong>. Tan grave como este problema es, sin embargo, la probabilidad de que esta disputa se resolver\u00e1 en realidad es m\u00e1s alto que mucha gente podr\u00eda pensar. Se ha confirmado que el primer ministro indio Narendra Modi, visitar\u00e1 China en mayo y se habla de que tanto China como la India ser\u00edan gustar\u00eda hacer un gran avance<\/a> en el tema. China tambi\u00e9n apoya una mayor participaci\u00f3n de la India en las instituciones internacionales, incluidas las Naciones Unidas. Estos signos positivos significan que existe un gran potencial para una asociaci\u00f3n entre China y la India m\u00e1s cerca, pese a la reciente campa\u00f1a sobre India ponerse del lado de los EE.UU. para contener a China. Lo m\u00e1s importante, lo que traer\u00e1 China e India juntos es su sue\u00f1o compartido de convertirse en pa\u00edses de primer piso desarrollados. En este sentido, la India puede beneficiarse de las exportaciones y el capital de China, mientras que China puede beneficiarse del mercado y la tecnolog\u00eda potencial de la India. Ser\u00eda un grave error para ambos pa\u00edses a despedir a sus intereses comunes a largo plazo a favor de los actuales conflictos.<\/span><\/p>\n

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La relaci\u00f3n entre China y Rusia es m\u00e1s interesante en estos d\u00edas como la crisis de Ucrania sigue impulsando Rusia y Occidente aparte. La desconfianza fundamental entre Occidente y Rusia ayuda a impulsar la crisis de Ucrania en curso<\/strong>. Pocos son optimistas sobre el potencial del acuerdo de alto el fuego reciente para resolver el conflicto y las relaciones entre Occidente y Rusia son propensos a estancarse durante alg\u00fan tiempo. Mientras tanto, la relaci\u00f3n entre China y Rusia se har\u00e1 m\u00e1s fuerte. China puede proporcionar estabilidad econ\u00f3mica y estrat\u00e9gica para Rusia, y Rusia puede estar parado con China en sus disputas en curso con otros pa\u00edses asi\u00e1ticos. Por lo menos cada uno puede ser de apoyo a la otra.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Desde un punto de vista fundamental, la raz\u00f3n principal para una posible coalici\u00f3n entre China y la India y Rusia es el deseo com\u00fan de construir un sistema mundial multipolar o m\u00faltiplex en el que las potencias emergentes como China e India pueden desempe\u00f1ar un papel m\u00e1s importante. <\/strong>Ninguno de los tres pa\u00edses se contentan con vivir bajo la sombra de la hegemon\u00eda de Estados Unidos, aunque ellos no quieran desafiar directamente a los EE.UU. en el momento. Como dijo el ministro de Relaciones Exteriores de China, Wang Yi, en 2013, los tres pa\u00edses deben trabajar juntos para promover la democratizaci\u00f3n de las relaciones internacionales. Si esto es cierto para los tres pa\u00edses, entonces hay una buena raz\u00f3n para considerar la posibilidad de una coalici\u00f3n entre China y la India y Rusia de alguna forma en el futuro. Eso no es una buena noticia para los EE.UU., que prefieren mantener su posici\u00f3n dominante durante el mayor tiempo posible. Los EE.UU. pueden tratar de contrarrestar la coalici\u00f3n con uno de los suyos, con Jap\u00f3n y la UE como socios formales.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Es poco probable que vea una coalici\u00f3n formal, compuesto por China, India y Rusia en el corto plazo, pero no hay que descartar la posibilidad a largo plazo. Los tres poderes est\u00e1n satisfechos con el actual orden global en diversos grados. Si los EE.UU. desea evitar dicha coalici\u00f3n debe pensar cuidadosamente acerca de c\u00f3mo fomentar la redistribuci\u00f3n del poder a nivel global. Comenzando el proceso de compartir el poder con China y la India podr\u00eda ser un buen comienzo.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Is a China-India-Russia Coalition Inevitable?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Although unlikely in the near future, the three powers share interests that bind them and pose a challenge to the U.S.<\/span><\/p>\n

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A new global order is emerging, though much of its shape is still uncertain. At the very least, many would agree that while the U.S. will remain a great power for many decades to come, its share of global power will decline relative to other rising powers. These other powers, such as China and India, will catch up and play a more active and important role in global affairs. While many analysts have focused their attention on a possible rivalry between China and the U.S., few have paid adequate attention to the dynamic emerging between China, India, and Russia and the possibility of a coalition among them born from their desire to alter the status quo.<\/span><\/p>\n

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On the surface it seems that China, India, and Russia are ill-suited to a partnership. Despite being members of the \u201cBRICS\u201d club, there are many substantive differences between the three countries, particularly between China and India, that will impact how they relate in the decades to come.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Tensions between China and India are obvious. While India is a democracy, China remains an authoritarian regime. Of course, the importance of regime type in interstate relations is debatable. States with different regime types are not necessarily doomed to troubled relations; there is nothing inherent in regime type that inhibits cooperation. Still, many would agree that India, to some degree, sees non-democratic China as a threat; whether or not such a threat perception is grounded in reality is a different issue. The perception alone impacts their relations.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The biggest problem in China-India relations is still the territorial dispute between them. As serious as this problem is, however, the likelihood that this dispute will be resolved is actually higher than many people might think. It has been confirmed that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit China in May and there is talk that both China and India would like to make a breakthrough<\/a> on the issue. China also supports greater Indian involvement at international institutions, including the United Nations. These positive signs mean that there is considerable potential for a closer China-India partnership, despite recent hype about India siding with the U.S. to contain China. Most importantly, what will bring China and India together is their shared dream of becoming first-tier developed countries. In this sense, India can benefit from China\u2019s exports and capital, whereas China can benefit from India\u2019s market and technology potential. It would be a serious mistake for both countries to dismiss their shared long-term interests in favor of present disputes.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The China-Russia relationship is more interesting these days as the Ukraine crisis continues to drive Russia and the West apart. The fundamental distrust between the West and Russia helps drive the ongoing Ukraine crisis. Few are optimistic about the potential of the recent ceasefire deal to settle the conflict and relations between the West and Russia are likely to stagnate for some time. Meanwhile, the China-Russia relationship will get stronger. China can provide economic and strategic stability to Russia, and Russia can stand with China in its ongoing disputes with other Asian countries. At the very least each can be supportive to the other.<\/span><\/p>\n

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From a fundamental perspective, the core reason for a possible China-India-Russia coalition is their common desire to build a multipolar or multiplex global system within which emerging powers like China and India can play a larger role. None of the three countries are content to live under the shadow of U.S. hegemony, though they may not want to directly challenge the U.S. at the moment. As China\u2019s Foreign Minister Wang Yi said in 2013, all three countries should work together to promote the democratization of international relations. If this is true for all three countries, then there is a good reason to consider the possibility of a China-India-Russia coalition in some form in the future. That is not good news for the U.S., which would prefer to maintain its dominant position for as long as possible. The U.S. may seek to counter the coalition with one of its own, with Japan and the E.U. as formal partners.<\/span><\/p>\n

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We are unlikely to see a formal coalition composed of China, India and Russia anytime soon, but we should not rule out the possibility over the long term. All three powers are dissatisfied with the current global order to varying degrees. If the U.S. wishes to avoid such a coalition it should think carefully about how to encourage the redistribution of power at the global level. Beginning the process of sharing power with China and India might be a good start.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Tweet……………….. Es -India-China y \u00a0Rusia \u00a0una Coalici\u00f3n Inevitable? ….. Is a China-India-Russia Coalition Inevitable? \u00a0 ….. ..,…   Etnopaisje.com + dibujos . .. … Aunque es poco probable en un futuro pr\u00f3ximo, los intereses tres poderes comparten que los unen y plantean un desaf\u00edo a los EE.UU ………,…. Un nuevo orden mundial est\u00e1 emergiendo, aunque […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[4,7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30573","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-divulgacion","category-mis-dibujos"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30573","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30573"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30573\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30577,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30573\/revisions\/30577"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30573"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30573"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30573"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}