{"id":20715,"date":"2012-08-24T18:46:30","date_gmt":"2012-08-24T16:46:30","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/?p=20715"},"modified":"2012-08-25T09:24:15","modified_gmt":"2012-08-25T07:24:15","slug":"es-la-epoca-de-los-milagros-de-crecimiento-de-los-mercados-emergentes-o-su-fin-is-the-age-of-emerging-market-growth-miracles-at-an-end","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/?p=20715","title":{"rendered":"Es la \u00e9poca de los milagros de crecimiento de los mercados emergentes o su fin? .Is the age of emerging-market growth miracles at an end?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Es la<\/strong> \u00e9poca de los milagros de crecimiento de los mercados emergentes o su fin?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Is the age of emerging-market growth miracles at an end?<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Etnopaisaje.com<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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La \u00faltima d\u00e9cada ha sido una epocao extraordinariamente buena para las econom\u00edas en desarrollo que tratan de ponerse al d\u00eda con los niveles mundiales ricos de productividad e ingresos. Desde finales de 1990, los mercados emergentes han crecido sistem\u00e1ticamente m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido que las econom\u00edas avanzadas<\/strong>, una tendencia que el FMI prev\u00e9 continuar\u00e1 durante los pr\u00f3ximos a\u00f1os por lo menos.<\/span><\/p>\n

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En una columna reciente<\/a> , sin embargo, el economista Dani Rodrik argumenta que la edad de los \u00abmilagros\u00bb de crecimiento est\u00e1 llegando a su fin<\/strong>. Sugiri\u00f3 que la industrializaci\u00f3n se est\u00e1 convirtiendo en una ruta menos segura de riqueza gracias a la disminuci\u00f3n de la intensidad del trabajo de la fabricaci\u00f3n, la competencia de China y la apertura reducida para las importaciones baratas a trav\u00e9s de las econom\u00edas avanzadas<\/span><\/p>\n

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The last decade or so has been an extraordinarily good one for developing economies seeking to catch up to rich world levels of productivity and income. Since the late 1990s, emerging markets have routinely grown faster than advanced economies, a trend that the IMF projects will continue for the next few years at least. In a recent column<\/a>, however, economist Dani Rodrik argued that the age of \u00abgrowth miracles\u00bb is coming to an end. He suggested that industrialization is becoming a less secure route to wealth thanks to the declining labor intensity of manufacturing, Chinese competition, and reduced openness to cheap imports across advanced economies<\/span><\/p>\n

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Respuesta:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Una pausa en el crecimiento, en lugar de una desaceleraci\u00f3n del crecimiento<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Hal Varian<\/a><\/strong> nuestro invitado escribi\u00f3 el 15 de agosto 2012, 13:01 GMT<\/span><\/p>\n

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Cuenten conmigo como un esc\u00e9ptico. En primer lugar, la desaceleraci\u00f3n en China y Brasil es sobre todo un esfuerzo autoimpuesto para refrescar econom\u00edas sobrecalentadas. La crisis financiera en Europa tambi\u00e9n ha afectado a las exportaciones de los pa\u00edses en desarrollo como China, Brasil y Turqu\u00eda. As\u00ed, es probable que esta es una pausa de crecimiento en lugar de una desaceleraci\u00f3n del crecimiento persistente.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Por otra parte, Rodrik es sin duda justo que convertir a los agricultores en obreros de f\u00e1brica puede dar lugar a un r\u00e1pido desarrollo. Sin embargo, los trabajadores de la f\u00e1brica puede convertirse en ingenieros y otros tipos de trabajadores del conocimiento como Singapur, Taiw\u00e1n y Corea del Sur han demostrado. China ha invertido fuertemente en sus universidades con el fin de formar el capital humano necesario para esta transformaci\u00f3n que viene.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00bfQu\u00e9 pasa con \u00c1frica? Inversi\u00f3n actual de China es principalmente basada en recursos. Sin embargo, si \u00c1frica se vuelve m\u00e1s rica, podr\u00eda haber oportunidades para construir f\u00e1bricas en ese pa\u00eds orientado hacia hacia el consumo interno y las exportaciones de bajo costo. <\/strong>Esta estrategia de desarrollo funcionar\u00e1 solamente si el ingreso de las exportaciones de recursos de \u00c1frica pueden conducir a un crecimiento de la demanda de los consumidores por un amplio sector de la poblaci\u00f3n. Esto est\u00e1 lejos de ser cierto, pero ciertamente posible. Esperemos<\/span><\/p>\n

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A response to:<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Is the age of emerging-market growth miracles at an end?<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

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A growth pause rather than a growth slowdown<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Hal Varian<\/a><\/strong> our guest wrote on Aug 15th 2012, 13:01 GMT<\/span><\/p>\n

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COUNT me as a sceptic. First, the slowdown in China and Brazil is mostly a self-imposed effort to cool off overheating economies. The financial crisis in Europe has also impacted exports from developing countries such as China, Brazil, and Turkey. So it is likely that this is a growth pause rather than a persistent growth slowdown.<\/span><\/p>\n

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On the other hand, Rodrik is certainly right that turning farmers into factory workers can lead to rapid development. However, factory workers can be turned into engineers and other sorts of knowledge workers as Singapore, Taiwan, and South Korea have demonstrated. China has invested heavily in their universities in order to build the human capital necessary for this coming transformation.<\/span><\/p>\n

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What about Africa? China’s current investment there is primarily resource-based. However, as Africa becomes richer, there could be opportunities to build factories there oriented towards towards domestic consumption and low-cost exports. This development strategy will only work if the income from Africa’s resource exports can lead to growth in consumer demand by a large sector of the population. This is far from certain, but certainly possible. Let us hope for the best.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Es la \u00e9poca de los milagros de crecimiento de los mercados emergentes a su fin?<\/a> 15 de agosto 2012<\/span><\/p>\n

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Los mercados emergentes se enfrentan a un l\u00edmite en el crecimiento impulsado por la inversi\u00f3n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Michael Pettis<\/a><\/strong> nuestro invitado escribi\u00f3 el 15 de agosto 2012 GMT, 13:10<\/span><\/p>\n

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Dani Rodrik es correcto, al menos durante las pr\u00f3ximas d\u00e9cadas. Cada milagro crecimiento en el siglo pasado, y ha habido muchos, fue impulsado por la inversi\u00f3n. En todos los casos que terminaron en una situaci\u00f3n de endeudamiento insostenible. \u00bfPor qu\u00e9? Probablemente porque hacia el final del per\u00edodo de crecimiento, gracias a las distorsiones en las se\u00f1ales de precios e incentivos asim\u00e9tricos para las \u00e9lites pol\u00edticas, las cuales son una parte necesaria del mecanismo original para el crecimiento de la inversi\u00f3n r\u00e1pido, la inversi\u00f3n se hizo excesiva y dio lugar a aumento de la deuda m\u00e1s r\u00e1pido que la capacidad de servicio de la deuda. <\/strong>El aparente \u00e9xito del modelo de crecimiento hace que sea dif\u00edcil de eliminar estas distorsiones, sobre todo porque la \u00e9lite de pol\u00edticas tend\u00edan a beneficiar desproporcionadamente a causa del crecimiento<\/span><\/p>\n

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Emerging markets face a limit to investment-led growth<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Michael Pettis<\/a><\/strong> our guest wrote on Aug 15th 2012, 13:10 GMT<\/span><\/p>\n

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DANI RODRIK is right, at least for the next few decades. Every growth miracle in the past century, and there have been many, was investment-driven. In every case it ended in an unsustainable debt burden. Why? Probably because towards the end of the growth period, thanks to distortions in pricing signals and skewed incentives for the policymaking elite, both of which were a necessary part of the original mechanism for rapid investment growth, the investment became excessive and led to debt rising faster than debt-servicing capacity. The seeming success of the growth model made it difficult to eliminate these distortions, especially since the policymaking elite tended to benefit disproportionately from the growth.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tweet…………. Es la \u00e9poca de los milagros de crecimiento de los mercados emergentes o su fin? . . Is the age of emerging-market growth miracles at an end? …… ……. .. . Etnopaisaje.com ……… ……………. La \u00faltima d\u00e9cada ha sido una epocao extraordinariamente buena para las econom\u00edas en desarrollo que tratan de ponerse al d\u00eda […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20715","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-flora"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20715","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=20715"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20715\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20718,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20715\/revisions\/20718"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=20715"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=20715"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=20715"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}