{"id":20247,"date":"2012-08-05T17:47:51","date_gmt":"2012-08-05T15:47:51","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/?p=20247"},"modified":"2012-08-05T17:47:51","modified_gmt":"2012-08-05T15:47:51","slug":"cinco-razones-para-la-caida-del-euro-y-dos-para-su-salvacion-five-reasons-for-the-fall-of-the-euro-and-two-for-their-salvation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/?p=20247","title":{"rendered":"Cinco razones para la ca\u00edda del euro y dos para su salvaci\u00f3n. Five reasons for the fall of the euro and two for their salvation"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Cinco razones para la ca\u00edda del euro y dos para su salvaci\u00f3n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2026\u2026<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2026\u2026\u2026.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Five reasons for the fall of the euro and two for their salvation<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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BBC<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Etnopaisaje.com<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2026\u2026….<\/span><\/p>\n

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Seg\u00fan Adam Leaver acad\u00e9mico de la Manchester Business School <\/em>y miembro del centro interdisciplinario CRESC (Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change<\/em>), tanto la intervenci\u00f3n de Draghi como la reacci\u00f3n de los mercados apunta a una enfermedad de fondo del sistema financiero internacional.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2026\u2026\u2026..<\/span><\/p>\n

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Es tan extraordinaria la reacci\u00f3n a lo que dijo la semana pasada como la que tuvo ahora. Es una medida de la volatilidad y la incertidumbre del actual sistema financiero<\/strong> que no ha salido de la crisis de 2008″, se\u00f1al\u00f3 Leaver a BBC Mundo.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2026\u2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Esta incertidumbre global<\/strong> est\u00e1 atravesada por una crisis de la eurozona que empieza a parecer cr\u00f3nica: crecimiento nulo o negativo, austeridad, d\u00e9ficit fiscal y recesi\u00f3n, altos niveles de deuda con fuertes vencimientos a corto plazo.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Con este tel\u00f3n de fondo BBC Mundo le ofrece cinco razones<\/strong> para dudar de la salud del euro y dos para pensar que puede salvarse<\/span><\/p>\n

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Los jinetes del apocalipsis<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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El primero de los jinetes es Espa\u00f1a<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Espa\u00f1a tiene vencimientos de deuda equivalentes a m\u00e1s de US$600.000 m<\/strong>illones de d\u00f3lares de aqu\u00ed a 2015 y reservas por US$48.000 millones.<\/span><\/p>\n

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En julio pag\u00f3 una prima de riesgo por encima del 7%, considerada insostenible<\/strong>, como demostraron los casos de Grecia, Irlanda y Portugal, todos rescatados por la troika<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2026\u2026<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

\u2026\u2026..<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

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El segundo jinete: Italia<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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La suerte de Espa\u00f1a tendr\u00e1 un fuerte impacto sobre el segundo jinete: Italia.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Seg\u00fan un reciente informe del centro de estudios brit\u00e1nico Open Europe, <\/em>Espa\u00f1a requerir\u00e1 entre 443.000 y 542.000 millones de euros<\/strong> (entre US$500.00 y US$600.000 millones).<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2026\u2026\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

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Seg\u00fan la p\u00e1gina web del Ministerio del Tesoro italiano<\/strong>, las necesidades de financiamiento de Italia hasta fin de a\u00f1o ascienden a 170.000 millones de euros<\/strong> (unos US$210.000 millones). En agosto los vencimientos de deuda superan los 30.000 millones (casi US$40.000 millones<\/span><\/p>\n

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El tercer jinete: Alemania<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Con un 82% de deuda en relaci\u00f3n a su PIB,<\/strong> con una econom\u00eda que empieza a enfriarse y que desde la creaci\u00f3n del euro solo ha crecido un 1,4% de promedio (menos que Francia, Holanda y el conjunto de la eurozona), los alemanes ven con preocupaci\u00f3n la crisis<\/span><\/p>\n

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A sus dudas se le a\u00f1aden los l\u00edmites que imponen la constituci\u00f3n alemana. El art\u00edculo 23 de la constituci\u00f3n exige una ley con el consenso del parlamento y el consejo federal<\/strong> que representa a los 16 estados aut\u00f3nomos germanos para transferir poderes soberanos como los que demandar\u00eda una mutualizaci\u00f3n de la deuda (que la deuda de cada pa\u00eds pasara a ser garantizada por el conjunto de la eurozona).<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

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El cuarto Jinete: el Banco Central Europeo (BCE)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2026\u2026..<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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El mandato ortodoxo del BCE \u2013enfocado exclusivamente en el control de la inflaci\u00f3n y<\/strong> no en el crecimiento\u2013 ha condicionado desde el comienzo su margen de maniobra.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2026\u2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

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El problema es que ante las crecientes dificultades de financiamiento de Espa\u00f1a e Italia, el otro mecanismo de rescate o neutralizaci\u00f3n a mano es el insuficiente Fondo Europeo de Estabilidad Financiera (FEEF).<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Este Fondo tiene unos US$388.214 millones de reserva y ser\u00e1 reemplazado, probablemente en septiembre, por el Mecanismo Europeo de Estabilidad (MEDE) que, cuando est\u00e9 en pleno funcionamiento, contar\u00e1 con unos US$776.428.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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El MEDE apenas alcanzar\u00eda para Espa\u00f1a. Italia precisar\u00eda un rescate de m\u00e1s de un bill\u00f3n de d\u00f3lares millones<\/span><\/p>\n

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El quinto Jinete: crecimiento nulo<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00bfSe puede volver al crecimiento en el seno del euro<\/strong>? \u00bfO la \u00fanica salida es abandonar la moneda \u00fanica europea para, luego de una crisis, rearmar las econom\u00edas?<\/span><\/p>\n

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Esta es la pregunta de fondo. Un creciente coro de voces se inclina por la salida del euro.<\/span><\/p>\n

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La primera salida del infierno: reestructuraci\u00f3n masiva<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2026.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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La propuesta la present\u00f3 la diputada federal Sarah Wagenknecht y contempla la eliminaci\u00f3n de todas las deudas por encima del 60% del PIB<\/strong> (l\u00edmite del endeudamiento establecido por el Tratado de Maastricht<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

\u2026\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

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La segunda salida del infierno: devaluaci\u00f3n<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Uno de los problemas m\u00e1s graves de la eurozona es que maneja una sola pol\u00edtica monetaria y cambiaria<\/strong> para econom\u00edas con muy distintas necesidades <\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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According to Adam Leaver <\/strong>academic of the Manchester Business School and a member of the CRESC interdisciplinary centre (Centre for Research on Socio-Cultural Change), both the intervention of Draghi and the reaction of the markets points to a disease of Fund of the international financial system<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

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It’s extraordinary reaction to what he said last week as they had now. It is a measure of volatility and uncertainty of the current financial system has not emerged from the crisis of 2008, \u00abLeaver said the BBC<\/span><\/p>\n

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Chronicle: zero or negative growth, austerity, fiscal deficit and recession, high levels of debt with strong short term maturities.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Against this backdrop, BBC World offers five reasons to doubt the health of the euro and two to think that you can save<\/span><\/p>\n

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The horsemen of the Apocalypse<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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The first of the riders is Spain<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Spain has maturities of debt equivalent to more than $600,000 million dollars here by 2015 and $48,000 million reservations.<\/span><\/p>\n

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In July paid a risk premium for above 7%, considered to be untenable, as demonstrated by the cases of Greece, Ireland and Portugal, all rescued by the troika<\/span><\/p>\n

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The fate of Spain will have a strong impact on the second rider: Italy.<\/span><\/p>\n

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According to a recent report by the British Studies Center Open Europe, Spain will require between 443.000 and 542.000 million euros (between US$ 500.00 and $600,000 million<\/span><\/p>\n

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The second rider: Italy<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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According to the website of the Italian Ministry of the Treasury, Italy until end of year financing needs amount to 170 billion euros (US$ 210,000 million). In August the debt maturities over 30,000 million (nearly US$ 40 billion)<\/span><\/p>\n

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The third Horseman: Germany<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Your questions are added the limits imposed by the German Constitution. Article 23 of the Constitution requires a law with the consensus of the Parliament and the federal Council representing the 16 autonomous German States to transfer sovereign powers as those who sue a mutualisation of the debt (which each country’s debt would be guaranteed for the whole of the eurozone).<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2026\u2026<\/span><\/p>\n

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\u2026\u2026\u2026\u2026.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The fourth Horseman: the European Central Bank (ECB)<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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The mandate of the ECB-orthodox focused exclusively on controlling inflation and not growth-conditioned from the beginning has room for maneuver.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The problem is that given the increasing difficulties of financing of Spain and Italy, another rescue or neutralization mechanism by hand is insufficient European Fund of financial stability (EFSF).<\/span><\/p>\n

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This Fund has about $388.214 billion of reserve and it will be replaced, probably in September, by the European stability mechanism (MEDE) that, when fully operational, will be approximately US$ 776.428.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The MEDE barely reached to Spain. Italy would require a bailout of more than one trillion dollars million<\/span><\/p>\n

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Quinto Jinete: zero growth<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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The growth can you return in the bosom of the euro? Or the only way out is abandoning the single currency for, in a crisis, reset the economies?<\/span><\/p>\n

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This is the question of Fund. A growing chorus of voices is tilted by the output of the euro.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The first exit of hell: massive restructuring<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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The proposal introduced the federal deputy Sarah Wagenknecht and contemplates the Elimination of all debts above 60% of GDP (the debt established by the Maastricht Treaty limit)<\/span><\/p>\n

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Tweet…………….. Cinco razones para la ca\u00edda del euro y dos para su salvaci\u00f3n \u2026\u2026 \u2026\u2026\u2026. Five reasons for the fall of the euro and two for their salvation .. … BBC .. \u2026\u2026\u2026.. Etnopaisaje.com \u2026\u2026…. … Seg\u00fan Adam Leaver acad\u00e9mico de la Manchester Business School y miembro del centro interdisciplinario CRESC (Centre for Research on […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20247","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-etnopaisaje"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20247","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=20247"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20247\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":20253,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/20247\/revisions\/20253"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=20247"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=20247"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=20247"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}