{"id":26260,"date":"2013-10-22T15:38:16","date_gmt":"2013-10-22T13:38:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/?p=26260"},"modified":"2013-10-22T15:38:16","modified_gmt":"2013-10-22T13:38:16","slug":"la-era-del-crudo-barato-se-agota-vivimos-el-comienzo-del-fin-de-la-civilizacion-moderna-the-era-of-cheap-oil-is-exhausted-live-the-beginning-of-the-end-of-modern-civilization","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/?p=26260","title":{"rendered":"La era del crudo barato se agota: \u00abVivimos el comienzo del fin de la civilizaci\u00f3n moderna.The era of cheap oil is exhausted: \u00abLive, the beginning of the end of modern civilization\u00bb"},"content":{"rendered":"

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La era del crudo barato se agota: \u00abVivimos el comienzo del fin de la civilizaci\u00f3n moderna\u00bb<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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The <\/span><\/strong>era<\/span><\/strong> of cheap oil is exhausted: \u00abLive, the beginning of the end of modern civilization\u00bb<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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RT Actualidad<\/a> \/ Econom\u00eda<\/a><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Etnopaisaje.com + dibujos<\/span>
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Seg\u00fan el Consejo Mundial de Energ\u00eda, las reservas probadas de petr\u00f3leo y de gas en el mundo bastar\u00e1n para los pr\u00f3ximos 56 y 55 a\u00f1os, respectivamente. Los expertos auguran tiempos dif\u00edciles para el sector.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Expertos citados por ‘La Voz de Rusia’<\/a> se muestran esc\u00e9pticos y creen que el mundo se encamina hacia una crisis catastr\u00f3fica en el sector energ\u00e9tico y que cambios irreversibles podr\u00edan ocurrir ya en esta generaci\u00f3n. Los c\u00e1lculos del Consejo se<\/strong> basan en los datos sobre las\u00a0reservas de petr\u00f3leo disponibles<\/a>. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Las\u00a0reservas de crudo<\/a> no extra\u00eddo alcanzan las 223.000 millones de toneladas y las de gas los 209<\/strong> billones de metros c\u00fabicos, seg\u00fan el informe. La situaci\u00f3n se complica por el hecho de que las fuentes de energ\u00eda alternativas no pueden ocupar posiciones estables: su participaci\u00f3n en la producci\u00f3n mundial de electricidad no excede el 5%.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Muchos expertos comparten el alarmismo de sus colegas del Consejo Mundial de Energ\u00eda. Hace unos a\u00f1os el economista jefe de la Agencia Internacional de Energ\u00eda, Fatih Birol, se\u00f1al\u00f3 que m\u00e1s de 800 campos de petr\u00f3leo en todo el mundo, cuyas reservas estimadas equivalen a las tres cuartas partes de petr\u00f3leo del planeta, ya han sobrepasado el pico de producci\u00f3n<\/strong> y que la tasa de agotamiento de hoy es dos veces m\u00e1s r\u00e1pida de lo que deber\u00eda seg\u00fan los c\u00e1lculos de hace dos o tres a\u00f1os.<\/span><\/p>\n

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\n\u00abUn d\u00eda de estos nos quedamos sin petr\u00f3leo<\/strong>: no suceder\u00e1 hoy o ma\u00f1ana, pero uno de estos d\u00edas nos quedaremos sin petr\u00f3leo y tenemos que abandonar el petr\u00f3leo antes de que nos abandone a nosotros. Tenemos que prepararnos para este d\u00eda\u00bb, destaca Birol. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00abPresenciamos el comienzo del fin de la civilizaci\u00f3n moderna\u00bb <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Incluso si la demanda se mantiene estable y no crece el mundo tendr\u00e1 que encontrar un volumen equivalente a cuatro Arabias Sauditas<\/strong> para preservar la producci\u00f3n a los niveles actuales, y a seis Arabias Sauditas si el mundo mantenerse al d\u00eda con el crecimiento previsto de la demanda entre la actualidad y el a\u00f1o 2030 , dijo Birol . <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Incluso los m\u00e1s optimistas creen que la humanidad, tarde o temprano, tendr\u00e1 que desmarcarse de la energ\u00eda de hidrocarburos<\/strong>. \u00abSe reducir\u00e1 el porcentaje de hidrocarburos en el balance del consumo de energ\u00eda, lo que, en principio, es l\u00f3gico. Se desarrollan nuevas tecnolog\u00edas, incluyendo las nucleares<\/strong>, que frenaron su evoluci\u00f3n debido a los acontecimientos en Jap\u00f3n, pero creo que la humanidad va a volver a ellas, aumentando el nivel de seguridad\u00bb, opina el analista independiente Dmitri Lutiaguin. Asimismo, el experto recuerda que existen fuentes de energ\u00eda alternativa -la solar, la e\u00f3lica y la hidr\u00e1ulica- y que \u00ablos vol\u00famenes de energ\u00eda derivados de estas fuentes se incrementar\u00e1n, reemplazando gradualmente la de los hidrocarburos en el balance de energ\u00eda\u00bb. <\/span><\/p>\n

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En cualquier caso, casi todos los expertos citados por ‘La Voz de Rusia’ opinan que los d\u00edas del petr\u00f3leo barato est\u00e1n contados<\/strong>. \u00abY si las predicciones alarmistas son correctas, al menos, en un 50% estamos presenciando el comienzo del fin de la civilizaci\u00f3n moderna. Por supuesto, no se trata del regreso la Edad de Piedra. Pero nuestros hijos (y nietos principalmente) pueden quedar privados de muchos placeres que actualmente gozan los residentes de pa\u00edses o territorios m\u00e1s desarrollados\u00bb, concluye ‘La Voz de Rusia’. <\/span><\/p>\n

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According to the World Energy Council, the proven reserves of oil and gas in the world will suffice for the next 56 and 55 years old, respectively. Experts predict tough times for the industry.<\/span> <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Experts cited by ‘The voice of Russia’ are skeptical and believe that the world is heading towards a catastrophic crisis in the energy sector and that the irreversible changes may occur already in this generation. The Council estimates are based on data on available oil reserves.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Not extracted crude oil reserves reach the 223,000 million tons and gas the 209 billion cubic meters, according to the report. The situation is complicated by the fact that alternative energy sources can not take stable positions: their participation in the global electricity production does not exceed 5%.<\/span> <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Many experts share the alarmism of colleagues from the World Energy Council. A few years ago the Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol, said that more than 800 oil fields around the world, whose estimated reserves are equivalent to three-quarters of oil on the planet, have already exceeded the peak of production and that the rate of depletion of today is two times faster than it should be according to the calculations of two or three years ago.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00abOne of these days we are left without oil: it will not happen today or tomorrow, but one of these days we are left without oil and we have to leave oil before the abandons us.\u00bb We have to prepare for this day,\u00bbBirol emphasizes.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00abWe are witnessing the beginning of the end of modern civilization\u00bb<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Even if demand remains stable and does not grow the world will have to find a volume equivalent to four Saudi Arabia to preserve production at current levels, and to six Saudi Arabia if the world keep up to day with the expected growth of demand between now and the year 2030, said Birol.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Even the more optimistic believe that humanity, sooner or later, will have to stand out from the energy of hydrocarbons. \u00abWill reduce the percentage of hydrocarbons in the energy balance, which, in principle, obviously.\u00bb Develop new technologies, including nuclear, which halted its evolution due to events in Japan, but I think humanity will return to them, increasing the level of security ‘, says independent analyst Dmitri Lutiaguin. Also, the expert reminds that there are sources of alternative energy – solar, wind power and hydraulic – and that \u00abthe volume of energy derived from these sources will increase,\u00bb gradually replaced that of hydrocarbons in the energy balance.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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In any case, almost all of the experts cited by ‘The voice of Russia’ believe that the days of cheap oil are numbered. \u00abAnd if the alarmist predictions are correct, at least 50% are witnessing the beginning of the end of modern civilization. Of course, it is not the stone age return. \u00abBut our children (and grandchildren mainly) may be deprived of many pleasures that currently enjoy the residents of countries or more developed territories\u00bb, concludes ‘The voice of Russia’.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26260","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-etnopaisaje"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26260","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=26260"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26260\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":26266,"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/26260\/revisions\/26266"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=26260"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=26260"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=26260"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}