{"id":25548,"date":"2013-08-25T14:16:54","date_gmt":"2013-08-25T12:16:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/?p=25548"},"modified":"2013-08-25T14:16:54","modified_gmt":"2013-08-25T12:16:54","slug":"caos-controlado-la-nueva-era-de-la-historia-de-oriente-proximo-sin-ee-uu-controlled-chaos-the-new-era-in-the-history-of-the-middle-east-without-ee-uu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/?p=25548","title":{"rendered":"\u00abCaos controlado\u00bb, la nueva era de la historia de Oriente Pr\u00f3ximo sin EE.UU.Controlled chaos\u00bb, the new era in the history of the Middle East without EE.UU."},"content":{"rendered":"

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\u00ab<\/span>Caos controlado\u00bb, la nueva era de la historia de Oriente Pr\u00f3ximo sin EE.UU.<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Controlled<\/span><\/strong><\/span> chaos\u00bb<\/span>, the<\/span> new<\/span> era<\/span> in<\/span> the<\/span> history<\/span> of<\/span> the Middle<\/span> East<\/span> without<\/span> EE.UU<\/span>.<\/span><\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Los acontecimientos que \u00faltimamente ha vivido Oriente Pr\u00f3ximo no deben analizarse como procesos sociales y econ\u00f3micos de cada pa\u00eds sino en funci\u00f3n de la confrontaci\u00f3n geopol\u00edtica entre las fuerzas que buscan aumentar su influencia en la zona<\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Seg\u00fan opina el analista pol\u00edtico Gumer Is\u00e1yev, citado por el portal Rodon.org, la primavera \u00e1rabe no solo conllev\u00f3 un cambio de reg\u00edmenes en la regi\u00f3n, sino que tambi\u00e9n debilit\u00f3 considerablemente a los pa\u00edses que desempe\u00f1aban un papel importante en la geopol\u00edtica de\u00a0Oriente Pr\u00f3ximo<\/a>, en particular, Egipto, Libia y Siria. <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Is\u00e1yev cree que la \u00abnueva era\u00bb en la historia de la regi\u00f3n comenz\u00f3 con el plan de George W. Bush de \u00abdemocratizaci\u00f3n del Gran Oriente Medio\u00bb que, seg\u00fan el experto, no fue m\u00e1s que un intento de establecer la hegemon\u00eda estadounidense en esta zona. La Casa Blanca solo necesitaba deshacerse de los \u00abrestos\u00bb de la guerra fr\u00eda como Irak, Libia, Siria e Ir\u00e1n<\/strong>. La guerra en Irak fue uno de los primeros ataques a la antigua estructura de Oriente Pr\u00f3ximo y marc\u00f3 el inicio de una nueva etapa en su historia. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Por su parte, Ir\u00e1n fue capaz de utilizar este factor desestabilizador en sus fronteras para su propio beneficio. Varias autoridades estadounidenses exig\u00edan la continuaci\u00f3n de la guerra en Irak a trav\u00e9s de un ataque contra Ir\u00e1n. Pero<\/strong> las fuerzas de\u00a0EE.UU.<\/a> para un conflicto a gran escala no eran suficientes en aquel momento, considera Is\u00e1yev. Ir\u00e1n, no obstante, aprovech\u00f3 la operaci\u00f3n estadounidense en Irak para avanzar en el liderazgo regional.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Los iran\u00edes ya hab\u00edan contribuido\u00a0en 1979\u00a0a la creaci\u00f3n de la organizaci\u00f3n chi\u00ed de Hezbol\u00e1, que se convirti\u00f3 despu\u00e9s de la guerra en el L\u00edbano en 2006 en un s\u00edmbolo de la resistencia contra Israel. Ir\u00e1n tambi\u00e9n comenz\u00f3 a intervenir en el conflicto palestino prestando apoyo a Ham\u00e1s en Gaza<\/strong>. En aquel entonces, la influencia iran\u00ed en la regi\u00f3n alcanz\u00f3 un nivel sin precedentes. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Pero la reconfiguraci\u00f3n geopol\u00edtica de Oriente\u00a0Pr\u00f3ximo emergi\u00f3 en un lugar diferente: en las calles de T\u00fanez, donde el joven vendedor de frutas Mohamed Bouazizi se suicid\u00f3 en el acto que dio origen a la primavera \u00e1rabe. La posibilidad del cambio de r\u00e9gimen en otros pa\u00edses \u00e1rabes (especialmente en\u00a0Siria<\/a>)\u00a0amenazaba con una transformaci\u00f3n importante del equilibrio de poder en la regi\u00f3n.<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Si los acontecimientos en T\u00fanez, Egipto y Libia no tuvieron un impacto directo en Ir\u00e1n, el conflicto sirio se ha convertido en un punto de inflexi\u00f3n<\/span><\/strong> para la rep\u00fablica isl\u00e1mica. Is\u00e1yev subraya que el apoyo a Bashar al Assad comenz\u00f3 a convertirla en el enemigo principal del \u00abdespertar \u00e1rabe\u00bb. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Asimismo, el comienzo de los disturbios en Siria provoc\u00f3 la disputa entre Ham\u00e1s e\u00a0Ir\u00e1n<\/a>,\u00a0ya<\/span><\/strong> que parte de los l\u00edderes del movimiento islamista palestino, que llevaban mucho tiempo en Damasco, expresaron su respaldo a la oposici\u00f3n siria. Por lo tanto, Ir\u00e1n dej\u00f3 de ser el principal defensor de los palestinos.
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La estratagema turca<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Is\u00e1yev indica que tal vez el \u00fanico pa\u00eds dispuesto a desafiar el liderazgo regional de Ir\u00e1n es\u00a0Turqu\u00eda<\/a>.\u00a0El primer ministro, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, logr\u00f3 mejorar la econom\u00eda turca y duplicar el PIB del pa\u00eds. Ankara estableci\u00f3 cooperaci\u00f3n econ\u00f3mica con los pa\u00edses \u00e1rabes, y su pol\u00edtica de \u00abcero problemas con los vecinos\u00bb dio excelentes resultados, por ejemplo, las relaciones hostiles con la vecina Siria fueron reemplazadas por una estrecha cooperaci\u00f3n en diversos campos.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Turqu\u00eda tambi\u00e9n sustituy\u00f3 a Ir\u00e1n en la posici\u00f3n de principal defensor de los palestinos: en 2009 en Davos, Erdogan se permiti\u00f3 criticar p\u00fablicamente a Israel. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Sin embargo, la\u00a0primavera \u00e1rabe<\/a> result\u00f3 una prueba importante para Turqu\u00eda. Ankara acogi\u00f3 con satisfacci\u00f3n la dimisi\u00f3n de Ben Ali y Mubarak, pero los acontecimientos en Libia, donde Turqu\u00eda tiene grandes contratos, provocaron ciertas dudas a Erdogan. A pesar de todo, Turqu\u00eda decidi\u00f3 aliarse con los <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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rebeldes. Cuando el ‘fuego revolucionario’ estall\u00f3 en la vecina Siria, Ankara tambi\u00e9n apoy\u00f3 a la oposici\u00f3n<\/span><\/strong>. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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El ‘abandono’ de su aliado Al Assad fue visto por las autoridades de Turqu\u00eda como un ‘sacrificio necesario’, ya que gracias a esa decisi\u00f3n Turqu\u00eda esperaba afianzarse a\u00fan m\u00e1s en un Oriente Pr\u00f3ximo renovado. Sin embargo, Is\u00e1yev califica ese comportamiento de \u00abgrave error de c\u00e1lculo<\/span><\/strong>\u00bb por parte de Ankara, dado que el presidente sirio actualmente no parece ceder sus posiciones, mientras que la guerra requiere que los turcos gasten grandes cantidades de dinero para mantener a los refugiados sirios y apoyar a los rebeldes.
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El experto tambi\u00e9n se\u00f1ala que es evidente que la participaci\u00f3n de Turqu\u00eda en el conflicto sirio socav\u00f3 la reputaci\u00f3n del partido gobernante y que fue una de las causas de los disturbios en el parque Gezi. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Primac\u00eda temporal de Catar <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Hace unos 15 a\u00f1os pocos expertos podr\u00edan haber imaginado que Catar<\/a>,\u00a0peque\u00f1o Estado gas\u00edfero en el golfo P\u00e9rsico, fuera capaz de alcanzar el nivel de influencia sobre los procesos pol\u00edticos en Oriente Pr\u00f3ximo del que goza hoy en d\u00eda. Pero la primavera \u00e1rabe convirti\u00f3 a este pa\u00eds en uno de los arquitectos de los proyectos pol\u00edticos en la regi\u00f3n. En los acontecimientos de Libia, Catar tuvo unos de los papeles principales. Adem\u00e1s, la llegada al poder de los Hermanos Musulmanes en T\u00fanez, Egipto y Marruecos tambi\u00e9n se debe a Catar<\/strong>.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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La entonces uni\u00f3n entre Hermanos Musulmanes y Catar pod\u00eda considerarse una de las alianzas m\u00e1s exitosas de la regi\u00f3n<\/span><\/strong>: la organizaci\u00f3n musulmana m\u00e1s grande de Oriente Pr\u00f3ximo necesitaba un patr\u00f3n rico, al tiempo que Catar buscaba una plataforma para su expansi\u00f3n regional. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Pero el \u00e9xito del pa\u00eds no dur\u00f3 mucho. Turqu\u00eda, aliado de Catar en la cuesti\u00f3n siria, se qued\u00f3 atrapada en las manifestaciones antigubernamentales, mientras que su aliado clave, los Hermanos Musulmanes egipcios, no fueron capaces de mantenerse en el poder y lo perdieron tras\u00a0el golpe militar<\/a> del pasado julio. <\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Arabia Saudita, \u00bffuera del juego? <\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Arabia Saudita ten\u00eda suficientes razones para estar descontenta con la pol\u00edtica de Catar. Pero lo que colm\u00f3 la paciencia de las autoridades saud\u00edes fueron las actividades catar\u00edes durante la primavera \u00e1rabe.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Los saud\u00edes vieron una amenaza ideol\u00f3gica en el crecimiento de la influencia de los Hermanos Musulmanes ya que Arabia Saudita ten\u00eda miedo de perder su monopolio sobre el islam pol\u00edtico<\/span><\/strong>, una de las razones por las que el pa\u00eds acogi\u00f3 con benepl\u00e1cito el golpe militar en Egipto y el arresto del presidente egipcio Morsi. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Aunque las autoridades saud\u00edes tratan de utilizar las consecuencias de la primavera \u00e1rabe para consolidar su posici\u00f3n en la regi\u00f3n, Is\u00e1yev opina que ser\u00e1 muy dif\u00edcil para el pa\u00eds avanzar en ello, ya que\u00a0Arabia Saudita<\/a> todav\u00eda no tiene un proyecto pol\u00edtico como Ir\u00e1n o Turqu\u00eda y no puede ofrecer un modelo alternativo de desarrollo. Arabia Saudita, a pesar de su riqueza y estrechos v\u00ednculos con EE.UU., tiene una estructura pol\u00edtica muy arcaica y engorrosa que no permite que el Gobierno sea lo suficientemente flexible para la promoci\u00f3n efectiva de sus intereses<\/strong>. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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\u00daltimamente, expertos en la geopol\u00edtica de Oriente Pr\u00f3ximo hablan de la p\u00e9rdida de la posici\u00f3n dominante de EE.UU. en la regi\u00f3n<\/strong>, por lo que ya han empezado a aparecer varias especulaciones sobre qui\u00e9n se convertir\u00e1 en el siguiente l\u00edder regional despu\u00e9s de la ‘salida’ inminente de los estadounidenses de Oriente Pr\u00f3ximo. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Is\u00e1yev concluye que la estrategia actual solo contribuye al mantenimiento de los persistentes\u00a0conflictos<\/a><\/strong> de baja intensidad en la regi\u00f3n, donde ninguna de las partes puede superar a la otra. Todo este \u00abcaos controlado\u00bb puede durar d\u00e9cada<\/strong>s, con una sola condici\u00f3n importante: el mantenimiento de las posiciones de EE.UU. como el principal proveedor de armas y el mayor importador de petr\u00f3leo y gas y, por lo tanto, como un cierto punto de referencia para los principales actores geopol\u00edticos del mundo. <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Events which lately has lived near East should not analysed as social and economic processes in each country, but depending on the geopolitical confrontation between forces seeking to increase its influence in the area.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Says political analyst Gumer Is\u00e1yev, quoted by the Rodon.org portal, the Arab spring not only entailed a change of regimes in the region, but it also considerably weakened countries played an important role in the geopolitics of the Middle East, in particular, Egypt, Libya and Syria.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Isayev believes that the \u00abnew era\u00bb in the history of the region began with the plan of George W. Bush’s \u00abdemocratization of the great Middle East\u00bb which, according to the expert, was no more than an attempt to establish American hegemony in this area. The White House only needed to get rid of the \u00abremains\u00bb of the cold such as Iraq, Libya, Syria and Iran war. The war in Iraq was one of the first attacks on the old structure of the Middle East and marked the beginning of a new stage in its history.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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For its part, Iran was able to use this destabilizing factor on its borders for their own benefit. Several American officials demanded the continuation of the war in Iraq through an attack against Iran. But US forces.UU. for a conflict on a large scale were not sufficient at that time, considered Isayev. Iran, however, took advantage of the U.S. operation in Iraq to advance the regional leadership.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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The Iranians had already contributed in 1979 to the creation of the Shiite organization Hezbollah, which it became after the war in the Lebanon in 2006 in a symbol of the resistance against Israel. Iran also began to intervene in Palestinian conflict to provide support to Hamas in Gaza. At that time, the Iranian influence in the region reached an unprecedented level.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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But Middle East geopolitical reconfiguration emerged in a different place: on the streets of Tunisia, where the young fruit vendor Mohamed Bouazizi committed suicide in the Act which gave rise to the Arab spring. The possibility of regime change in other Arab countries (especially in Syria) threatened with a major transformation of the balance of power in the region.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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If the events in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya did not have a direct impact on Iran, the Syrian conflict has become a turning point for the Islamic Republic. Isayev stressed that support for Bashar Al-Assad started to become the main enemy of the \u00abArab Awakening\u00bb.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Also the start of riots in Syria provoked the dispute between Hamas and Iran, as part of the leaders of the Palestinian Islamist movement, which had been long in Damascus, expressed their support for the Syrian opposition. Therefore, Iran ceased to be the main defender of the Palestinians.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Isayev indicated that perhaps the only country willing to challenge the regional leadership of Iran is Turkey. The Prime Minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, managed to improve the Turkish economy and doubling the country’s GDP. Ankara established economic cooperation with Arab countries, and its policy of \u00abzero problems with neighbours\u00bb gave excellent results, for example, hostile relations with neighboring Syria were replaced by a close cooperation in various fields.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Turkey also replaced Iran in the position of leading advocate of the Palestinians: in 2009 in Davos, Erdogan was allowed to publicly criticize Israel.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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However, the Arab spring proved a major test for Turkey. Ankara welcomed the resignation of Ben Ali and Mubarak, but the events in Libya, where Turkey has large contracts, provoked doubts to Erdogan. Nevertheless, Turkey decided to ally with the rebels. When the ‘revolutionary fire’ broke out in neighboring Syria, Ankara also supported the opposition.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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‘Abandonment’ of his ally Al-Assad was seen by the authorities of Turkey as a ‘necessary sacrifice’, since thanks to that decision Turkey expected to strengthen further in a renewed Middle East. However, Isayev qualifies the behavior of\u00bbgrave miscalculation\u00bb by Ankara, since Syrian President currently does not seem to give up their positions, while war requires Turks to spend large amounts of money to keep Syrian refugees and support to the rebels.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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The expert also notes that it is clear that the participation of Turkey in the Syrian conflict has undermined the reputation of the ruling party and was one of the causes of the disturbances in the Gezi Park.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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…….

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Temporary primacy of Qatar<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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About 15 years ago few experts could have imagined that Qatar, small State gas in the Persian Gulf, was able to reach the level of influence on the political process in the Middle East that it enjoys today. But the Arab spring turned this country into one of the architects of the political projects in the region. In the events of Libya, Qatar was one of the main roles. In addition, the coming to power of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco is also due to Qatar.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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The then union between Muslim Brotherhood and Qatar could be considered one of the most successful alliances in the region: the Middle East’s largest Muslim Organization needed a rich patron, at the time that Qatar wanted a platform for regional expansion.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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But the success of the country did not last long. Turkey, ally Qatar in the Syrian issue, been caught up in the anti-Government demonstrations, while its key ally, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, were not able to stay in power and lost it after the coup military past<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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……<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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………….<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Saudi Arabia, are out of the game?<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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………….<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Saudi Arabia had enough reasons to be dissatisfied with the policy of Qatar. But what broke the patience of the Saudi authorities were Qatari activities during the Arab spring.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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The Saudis were threatening ideological in the growth of the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood since Saudi Arabia was afraid of losing their monopoly on political islam, one of the reasons why the country had welcomed the military coup in Egypt and the arrest of Egyptian President Morsi.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Although the Saudi authorities are trying to use the consequences of the Arab spring to consolidate its position in the region, Isayev says that it will be very difficult for the country to move forward on it, since Saudi Arabia still does not have a political as Iran or Turkey project and cannot offer an alternative model of development. Saudi Arabia, despite its wealth and close ties with the us.UU., has a very archaic and cumbersome political structure that does not allow that the Government is flexible enough for the effective promotion of its interests.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

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……….

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Chaos without end<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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……………<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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Lately, the geopolitics of Middle East experts talk about the loss of America’s dominant position.UU. in the region, so they have already begun to appear several speculations about who will become the next regional leader after the imminent departure of Americans in the Middle East.<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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……..<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

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…….<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n

<\/span><\/p>\n

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