{"id":24428,"date":"2013-05-07T14:35:29","date_gmt":"2013-05-07T12:35:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/?p=24428"},"modified":"2013-05-07T14:35:29","modified_gmt":"2013-05-07T12:35:29","slug":"analyst-syrian-hostilities-bring-middle-east-catastrophe-closer-analista-las-hostilidades-en-siria-nos-acercan-a-una-catastrofe-en-oriente-medio","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/?p=24428","title":{"rendered":"Analyst: Syrian hostilities bring Middle East catastrophe closer.Analista: Las hostilidades en Siria, nos acercan a una cat\u00e1strofe en Oriente medio"},"content":{"rendered":"

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Analyst: Syrian hostilities bring Middle East catastrophe closer<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Analista: Las hostilidades en Siria, nos acercan a una cat\u00e1strofe \u00a0en Oriente medio<\/span><\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Nota del editor: <\/em><\/strong>Fawaz A. Gerges<\/a><\/em> profesor de relaciones internacionales en la Escuela de Econom\u00eda de Londres, donde dirige el Centro de Oriente Medio<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

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(CNN)<\/strong> – Lo que Siria afirma es <\/strong>el lanzamiento de Israel en dos ataques a\u00e9reos<\/a><\/strong> en Damasco la semana pasada presenta una marcada escalada y peligroso de la participaci\u00f3n de ese pa\u00eds en la guerra de Siria.<\/span><\/p>\n

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La intervenci\u00f3n de Israel – si se confirma – tambi\u00e9n muestra c\u00f3mo el conflicto se ha transformado de un levantamiento pol\u00edtico de una lucha armada interna<\/strong>, y ahora a una guerra regional por poder ferozmente combatido en campos de la muerte de Siria. (Israel tiene una pol\u00edtica de negarse a confirmar o negar los ataques atribuidos a sus fuerzas armadas.)<\/span><\/p>\n

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La confrontaci\u00f3n en Siria se ha vuelto m\u00e1s compleja, m\u00e1s peligrosa y m\u00e1s dif\u00edcil de resolver.<\/span><\/p>\n

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La lucha de Siria no s\u00f3lo se ha extendido a los pa\u00edses vecinos de Siria, como el L\u00edbano, Irak, Jordania y Turqu\u00eda -, pero tambi\u00e9n se ha convertido en un campo de batalla en el que Israel e Ir\u00e1n se desaf\u00edan entre s\u00ed.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Tambi\u00e9n hay una rivalidad feroz geoestrat\u00e9gica que se desarrolla en Siria entre sunitas y dominante Arabia Saudita e Ir\u00e1n chi\u00ed<\/strong>, una rivalidad invertido y alimentado con el sectarismo.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Existe un peligro<\/strong> real de que este complejo conflicto en Siria podr\u00eda derivar en una regi\u00f3n en toda batalla que participan las principales aliados de Siria – Ir\u00e1n y Hezbollah e Israel, otras potencias regionales, y los estados del oeste.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Presunta implicaci\u00f3n profunda de Israel en el conflicto tambi\u00e9n cambia la din\u00e1mica de la lucha pol\u00edtica en Siria de dos maneras. Pone la oposici\u00f3n armada a la defensiva, porque les muestra que ellos e Israel est\u00e1n luchando indirectamente el mismo enemigo – el r\u00e9gimen de Assad.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

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Y refuerza la narrativa dominante del presidente Bashar al-Assad: que la lucha en Siria no es interna, que no se trata de una coalici\u00f3n nacional tratando de reemplazar el autoritarismo a la democracia -, sino m\u00e1s bien se trata de una conspiraci\u00f3n m\u00e1s amplia encabezada por Israel y sus aliados regionales y las potencias occidentales<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Los medios oficiales sirios ya se ha retratado bombardeos de Israel como un intento de apuntalar la oposici\u00f3n armada<\/a> y revertir el equilibrio de poder en su favor.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Aunque el gobierno iran\u00ed ha declarado en repetidas ocasiones que iba a acudir en ayuda de Siria si es atacado por Israel, es poco probable que Ir\u00e1n o su socio de Hezbollah tomar\u00edan represalias directamente contra posibles ataques de Israel<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Tanto Ir\u00e1n como Hezbol\u00e1 quieren evitar un conflicto regional en el que Israel y sus aliados tendr\u00edan la ventaja<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Lo que Ir\u00e1n y Hezbollah lo m\u00e1s probable hacer es profundizar su participaci\u00f3n en las arenas movedizas de Siria. En un emotivo discurso la semana pasada, Hassan Nasrallah, el m\u00e1ximo l\u00edder de Hezbol\u00e1, ha destacado que los aliados de al-Assad no permitir\u00e1 que Siria caiga. <\/strong>Ahora Hezbollah e Ir\u00e1n ser\u00edan m\u00e1s decididos que nunca para evitar la eliminaci\u00f3n de al-Assad del poder.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Francamente dicho, la reciente escalada de hostilities no s\u00f3lo para prolongar el conflicto mortal en Siria, pero ahora se ha convertido en una guerra abierta por poderes – que tiene importantes repercusiones potenciales para la seguridad y la paz regional e internacional.<\/span><\/p>\n

Principal objetivo de Israel parece ser el establecimiento de una l\u00ednea roja en Siria, por lo que no hay armas avanzadas llegan a Hezbollah – su archienemigo en el L\u00edbano<\/strong>.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Destinatarios principales de Israel fue Hezbol\u00e1 e Ir\u00e1n. Israel est\u00e1 tomando un riesgo calculado que ni Siria ni Hezbollah correr\u00edan el riesgo de represalias.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Hay un riesgo de error de c\u00e1lculo que podr\u00eda desencadenar un choque m\u00e1s grande.<\/span><\/p>\n

Teniendo en cuenta los riesgos y los peligros de un conflicto en toda la regi\u00f3n, es de esperar que las grandes potencias – en particular los Estados Unidos y Rusia – asumir\u00edan su responsabilidad hist\u00f3rica y llegar a un entendimiento de que comience el proceso de poner fin a la mortal lucha en Siria, que ha matado a m\u00e1s de 70.000 sirios<\/a> , seg\u00fan la \u00faltima estimaci\u00f3n de las Naciones Unidas, y ha causado un desastre humanitario.<\/span><\/p>\n

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de dos a\u00f1os despu\u00e9s del estallido de la confrontaci\u00f3n Siria<\/strong> no parece ser una soluci\u00f3n militar. Se trata de una larga guerra de desgaste sin final a la vista. Ni el campo interno parece tener los medios para dar un golpe decisivo.<\/span><\/p>\n

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S\u00f3lo \u00a0una soluci\u00f3n pol\u00edtica pondr\u00e1 fin al derramamiento de sangre siria y<\/strong> prevenir lo impensable: a nivel regional conflicto que tendr\u00eda consecuencias catastr\u00f3ficas.<\/span><\/p>\n

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(CNN)<\/strong> — What Syria asserts is Israel’s launch of two air strikes<\/a> on Damascus last week presents a marked and dangerous escalation of that country’s involvement in the Syrian war.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Israel’s intervention — if confirmed — also shows how the conflict has mutated from a political uprising to an internal armed struggle, and now to a regional war by proxy fiercely fought on Syria’s killing fields. (Israel has a policy of refusing to confirm or deny attacks attributed to its military.)<\/span><\/p>\n

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The confrontation in Syria has become more complex, more perilous, and more difficult to resolve.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The Syrian struggle has not only spread into Syria’s neighbors, like Lebanon, Iraq, Jordan and Turkey — but has also become a battlefield wherein Israel and Iran are challenging each other.<\/span><\/p>\n

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There is also a fierce geostrategic rivalry unfolding in Syria between Sunni-dominant Saudi Arabia and Shiite Iran, a rivalry invested and fuelled with sectarianism.<\/span><\/p>\n

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A real danger exists that this complex conflict in Syria could escalate into a region-wide battle involving Syria’s major allies — Iran and Hezbollah, and Israel, other regional powers, and the Western states.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Israel’s alleged deepening involvement in the conflict also changes the dynamics of the political struggle in Syria in two ways. It puts the armed opposition on the defensive, because it shows them that they and Israel are indirectly battling the same enemy — the Assad regime.<\/span><\/p>\n

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And it reinforces President Bashar al-Assad’s dominant narrative: that the struggle in Syria is not internal, that this is not about a domestic coalition striving to replace authoritarianism with democracy — but rather this is a wider conspiracy spearheaded by Israel and its regional allies and Western powers.<\/span><\/p>\n

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The Syrian official media has already portrayed Israel’s bombings as an attempt to shore up the armed opposition <\/a>and reverse the balance of power in its favor.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Although the Iranian leadership has repeatedly stated that it would come to the aid of Syria if it is attacked by Israel, it is unlikely that Iran or its partner Hezbollah would retaliate directly against Israel’s possible strikes.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Both Iran and Hezbollah would like to avoid a regional conflict in which Israel and its allies would have the upper hand.<\/span><\/p>\n

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What Iran and Hezbollah would most likely do is deepen their involvement in Syria’s shifting sands. In an emotional speech last week, Hassan Nasrallah, the Hezbollah top leader, stressed that al-Assad’s allies will not allow Syria to fall. Now Hezbollah and Iran would become more determined than ever to prevent the removal of al-Assad from power.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Bluntly put, the recent escalation of hostilities will not only prolong the deadly conflict in Syria, but has now made it an open-ended war by proxy — one with major potential repercussions for regional and international security and peace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Israel’s major goal appears to be the establishment of a red line in Syria, whereby no advanced weapons reach Hezbollah — its archenemy in Lebanon. Israel’s primary audience was Hezbollah and Iran. Israel is taking a calculated gamble that neither Syria nor Hezbollah would risk retaliation.<\/span><\/p>\n

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There is a risk of miscalculation that could trigger a bigger clash.<\/span><\/p>\n

Given the risks and the dangers of a region-wide conflict, one would hope that the great powers — particularly the United States and Russia — would assume their historic responsibility and reach an understanding that begins the process of putting an end to the deadly struggle in Syria that has killed more than 70,000 Syrians<\/a>, according to the latest United Nations estimate, and caused a humanitarian disaster<\/span><\/p>\n

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More than two years after the breakout of the Syrian confrontation there does not seem to be a military solution. It is a long war of attrition with no end in sight. Neither internal camp seems to have the means to deliver a decisive blow.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Only a political solution will put an end to the shedding of Syrian blood and prevent the unthinkable: a region-wide conflict that would have catastrophic consequences.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Tweet……………….. Analyst: Syrian hostilities bring Middle East catastrophe closer …….. ……………… Analista: Las hostilidades en Siria, nos acercan a una cat\u00e1strofe \u00a0en Oriente medio ……. …… …Etnopaisaje.com …… … . . . . Nota del editor: Fawaz A. Gerges profesor de relaciones internacionales en la Escuela de Econom\u00eda de Londres, donde dirige el Centro de […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24428","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-flora"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24428","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=24428"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24428\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24441,"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24428\/revisions\/24441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=24428"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=24428"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.floracantabrica.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=24428"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}